There has never been an era in which quantifying risk and reward in liquid asset investing was more important. How about automating much of your risk/reward calculation, while using the most precise methods possible?
Construct or link stock porfolios and run scenarios revealing expected changes in stock prices in response to changes in GDP growth expectations. What happens to the portfolio if there's a 2% recession? How about if growth suprises by .5 % on the upside?
View the real time market forecast for US GDP growth at a glance. What kind of changes in growth is the market signaling? Will policymakers do enough to offset problems? This is another way to quantify your risk and reward potential.
I began my journey toward better understanding macroeonomics, and particularly its relationship to liquid asset prices, in 2007, as the Great Recession and financial crisis took hold. I did not see such a crisis coming, so I wanted to be in a position to better prepare for such crises in the future. I was fascinated with the idea that resources could be idle for years, even following recessions, revealing apparent market failures.
It turns out the primary market failure involves sticky wages and prices, but the larger problem with markets is the approach to regulation, which is poorly suited to the task. This, unfortunately, creates the need for software such as I'm producing.
I'm happy to say that I have discovered a way to precisely predict changes in broad stock indexes, given specific changes in GDP growth expecations. The approach does not rely on statistics, but instead is deterministic. Then, statistical methods are applied to predict changes in individual stock prices, based on predicted changes in the broad stock index.
Professionally, I have been a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch, an independent financial advisor.
Send me a message, and I will get back to you soon to schedule a consultation.
Monday - Friday: 9am - 5pm
Saturday: By appointment
Sunday: Closed
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